Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 30/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Over the past 5 seasons, when the Royals have been “tired” road underdogs in a conference game, their opponents have beaten the 1H moneyline 68% of the time for 11% ROI. Today that opponent is the Toronto Blue Jays.
EDGE: Toronto F5
2. Atlanta Braves @ NY Mets
With Noah Syndergaard returning from injury after a 2-week absence, I suspected the market would over-react to the news and that the sharps would just on the other side since the Mets will be facing a powerful Braves squad with 9-3 Max Fried on the mound rocking a 3.5 xFIP. This was confirmed when the opening line of NY -130 got instantly pushed down to -115 and has traveled as low as -105, essentially making this game a pick’em. I do still feel there’s edge at this price-point, though hoping for a 3-up, 3-down top of the 1st and grabbing the more favorable betting line as a live-bet does seem a tad more appealing to me.
EDGE: Atlanta ML
CFL Analytics Betting Edges
3. See my thoughts on the final game of Week 3 in this week’s CFL blog
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
4 & 5. New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream & Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
Over the past 3 seasons the Los Angeles Sparks and Atlanta Dream have combined to go 56-22 in favor of the under, good for 40% ROI including 15% so far this season. The under in this situation is 6-0 when Chicago has been the opponent and 4-3 when it’s been New York, giving a slight edge to the Sparks/Sky game.
EDGE: Chicago/Los Angeles & New York/Atlanta Unders
6. Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings
Over the past 2 seasons, Minnesota Lynx road games have gone 16-5 in favor of the under by an average margin of 5.5 points including 2-0 when Dallas has been the home team.
EDGE: Minnesota/Dallas Under – #MakeUndersGreatAgain
BIG3 Picks & Betting Edges
With no spreads posted in these games and all the favorites being fairly dominant, the only edge I see, though it is a fairly thin one, is parlaying 2 or 3 of these games either with one another or with a separate bet listed above. Here is how the payout for a 3-team BIG3 parlay would look based on current Bovada prices:
Bivouac (-180) + 3 Headed Monsters (-270) + Power (-250)
= $198.40 return for every $100 bet
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.
Previous Blog Recap
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If you're going to have a losing day, this seems like a good way to do it. 🙏 Not a great day record-wise but in reviewing my notes I don't really see much I'd do differently other than mayyybee fade arizona since it felt closest and likely had some recency bias in it, but overall the spots still seem fine in hindsight. Most importantly, was able to push hard when the universe gifted us an edge and took advantage. Regardless, still not rich, still not chasing, on to the next one we go and go and go and go