Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 30/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Over the past 5 seasons, when the Royals have been “tired” road underdogs in a conference game, their opponents have beaten the 1H moneyline 68% of the time for 11% ROI. Today that opponent is the Toronto Blue Jays.
EDGE: Toronto F5
2. Atlanta Braves @ NY Mets
With Noah Syndergaard returning from injury after a 2-week absence, I suspected the market would over-react to the news and that the sharps would just on the other side since the Mets will be facing a powerful Braves squad with 9-3 Max Fried on the mound rocking a 3.5 xFIP. This was confirmed when the opening line of NY -130 got instantly pushed down to -115 and has traveled as low as -105, essentially making this game a pick’em. I do still feel there’s edge at this price-point, though hoping for a 3-up, 3-down top of the 1st and grabbing the more favorable betting line as a live-bet does seem a tad more appealing to me.
EDGE: Atlanta ML
CFL Analytics Betting Edges
3. See my thoughts on the final game of Week 3 in this week’s CFL blog
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
4 & 5. New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream & Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
Over the past 3 seasons the Los Angeles Sparks and Atlanta Dream have combined to go 56-22 in favor of the under, good for 40% ROI including 15% so far this season. The under in this situation is 6-0 when Chicago has been the opponent and 4-3 when it’s been New York, giving a slight edge to the Sparks/Sky game.
EDGE: Chicago/Los Angeles & New York/Atlanta Unders
6. Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings
Over the past 2 seasons, Minnesota Lynx road games have gone 16-5 in favor of the under by an average margin of 5.5 points including 2-0 when Dallas has been the home team.
EDGE: Minnesota/Dallas Under – #MakeUndersGreatAgain
BIG3 Picks & Betting Edges
With no spreads posted in these games and all the favorites being fairly dominant, the only edge I see, though it is a fairly thin one, is parlaying 2 or 3 of these games either with one another or with a separate bet listed above. Here is how the payout for a 3-team BIG3 parlay would look based on current Bovada prices:
Bivouac (-180) + 3 Headed Monsters (-270) + Power (-250)
= $198.40 return for every $100 bet
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.