Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.

MLB Analytics Betting Edges – July 4/2019

1. New York Yankees @ Tamp Bay Rays

Over the past decade, betting on conference home dogs featuring a low-WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) starter  has returned a 9% ROI and has never had an unprofitable year. Today’s starter for Tampa Bay – the conference home dog – is Yonny Chirinos, who holds a WHIP of just 1.00.

EDGE: Tampa Bay F5

yonny chirinos tampa bay rays tb mlb picks july 4

2. Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

Over the past 2 seasons Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has gone 10-5-1 in favor of the under as a favorite pitching against tired teams, good for 28% ROI.

EDGE: Under 9.5

matthew boyd detroit tigers mlb picks july 4

CFL Analytics Betting Edges

3. Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Montreal Alouettes

Over the past 14 years, the away team’s third and fourth games of the season  has failed to reach the over 61% of the time, resulting in a 19% ROI for under bettors. In that time, the stat has been unprofitable for just 3 of 14 seasons.

EDGE: Under (I’ll likely be pairing it with the Hamilton spread as part of a 2-team 6-point +100 teaser on Pinnacle, meaning I’ll have a parlay of Hamilton -6 and under 62.5).

hamilton tigercats montreal alouettes cfl betting picks july 4

That’s it for today, happy 4th of July to all my American friends, bet (and party) safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where almost 300 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.

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