Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – May 30/2019
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Taylor Clarke is yet another Arizona rookie playing above expectation while heading into the toughest ballpark in the league against the team scoring more runs at home than anyone in the majors. With an 80% LOB and a 2.93 ERA that converts to a 4.79 xFIP – both indicating Clarke is running better than expectation and should regress at some point, this is a clearly +EV spot that we don’t need to think too deeply about.
EDGE: Rockies 1H
2. Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
I’ll take my chances on under-preforming but still favorite Red Sox ace Chris Sale – who is currently running well below expectation with a 4.19 ERA converting to a 3.43 xFIP – against Yankees starter JA Happ, whose xFIP is nearly 1.5 points higher.
EDGE: Red Sox 1H
3. Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
Not only is Indians Starter Carlos Carrasco’s xFIP 1.30 lower than his ERA, but over the past two seasons he’s gone 4-0-1 when playing a tired White Sox team (8+ games in 10 days), which is exactly who he’s facing today. Meanwhile, his opponent Manny Banuelos has an xFIP over 5 and is serving up homeruns on 26% of balls in play (BIP).
EDGE: Indians 1H
4. Kasas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
Over the past 4 seasons, fading non-playoff favorites against teams with a run average above 3.3 has gone 76-33 for 19% ROI when betting on the +1.5 Runline. Today that team is the Kansas City Royals.
And with Rangers starter Mike Minor running way above expectation with an 86% LOB (league average 73%) and a 2.55 ERA converting to a 4.07 xFIP, there seems to be just enough edge to take a shot here.
EDGE: Royals +1.5
NBA Analytics Betting Edges – May 30/2019
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By pregame betting the Raptors to win Game 1 you are effectively saying one of two things: 1. You do not care about getting the best line possible. Or 2. Toronto will lead the game end-to-end. That's because assuming #2 is false, which any logical basketball fan would agree is much more likely than the alternative, you are all but guaranteed to get a better Raptors betting line simply by waiting for one of the Warriors' patented early-game surges (11-2 ATS 1st quarter this postseason), and taking your bet then! Of course, if you don't have access to live betting, you have no choice but to take the Raps pregame. BUT, if you do plan on betting Toronto to win the game and have the ability to bet ingame, make sure to maximize your edge by looking for a spot early in the 1st quarter to get a few extra points onto your spread line. Good luck!
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
Datasets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals:
1. Since 2005, when both teams have had 4 or more days off between games in the playoffs, the home team is 83-47 ATS (64%). Edge: Raptors.
2. Since 2012, the Warriors are 19-8 ATS when playing a game as the underdog. Edge: GSW
3. Over the past 4 seasons (as far back as the data goes), when the difference between money % and ticket % is between -5 and 15% (currently 6), visitor dogs have returned 28% ROI or +18 Units, including +12 Units in Game 1. Edge: GSW
Although there is some debate in this one, I’ll be riding the team I see as having the edge the entire way and letting the chips fall where they may, a strategy that’s worked out for me in all series but the Bucks/Raptors and Nuggets/Blazers. That’s why I’ll be betting the Warriors in every game unless the series goes the distance, at which point I’ll join my Canadian brethren in cheering for the trophy to come home in Game 7.
Additionally, with the Warriors leading the league this year in 1st quarter points on the road – and the raptors only holding the 15th spot at home – I’ll be taking a unit on the Golden State 1Q Spread, which has gone 11-2 this postseason.
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sportsbetting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.