Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – May 29/2019
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
1. San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
After going 2-0-1 yesterday, 2 outs away from a clean sweep, it’s time to jump back on the horse and keep this heater going, starting with a matchup between the Giants and Marlins. With both starters playing above their results – Madison Bumgarner holding a 67% LOB and 3.65 xFIP (compared to a 4.10 ERA) and Pablo Lopez holding an even more dramatic 63% LOB and 3.91 xFIP (vs a 5.40 ERA) – this is a spot we may be able to catch a return to the mean with both pitchers, particularly against each others offense, which both rank in the bottom 3 of the league so far this season.
And with 70% of the early betting dollars on the under, as well as the two starters combing to go 11-4-1 in favor of the under in game featuring tired road-favorites, this looks a good spot to put the ball in the pitchers’ hands and try to catch some positive variance.
Edge: Under 7
2. Arizona Diamonbacks at Colorado Rockies
With D-backs ace Robbie Ray taking his 3.83 xFIP and impressive 9.8% HR/FB rate against pitching against infrequent starter Jeff Hoffman and his 4.58 xFIP in just 10 innings of work, there’s no need to overthink this one too much. Although Colorado does rank #1 in Runs Per Game at home, this is an opportunity to bet on a great pitching advantage at a reduced price (thanks to the Rockies aforementioned success at home).
Edge: Arizona 1H
3. Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Wade LeBlanc goes into this matchup holding an xFIP nearly 2 full point below his ERA as well as a 67% LOB, both of which indicate his results have been worse than his pitching. Additionally, his 22% HR/FB ratio is twice his career average, something
we’d expect to level out as we saw in yesterday’s blog with Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, who held his opponents to 2 runs in the first 5 innings. Additionally, over the past two seasons LeBlanc is 16-8-2 for 31% ROI against tired teams (defined as 8+ games in 10 days).
Meanwhile, Rangers started Drew Smyly has 1 win since 2016, when he went 7-12 in 30 starts, as well as an unsightly 5.76 xFIP over a small sample-size. And with him winning his last start by pitching a very unimpressive 6 innings while giving up three runs on five hits and four walks, this seems like a good time to sell high and fade Mr. Smyly.
Edge: Seattle 1H
4. Toronto Bluejays @ TB Rays
The only reason this game is at the bottom of the pile is due to having to lay 2-1 odds, a testament to Tampa Bay’s expected dominance in this one. Not only has Rays started Blake Snell been pitching well in recent starts, but he’s actually outproducing his stats with an ERA of 3.07 converting all the way down to a 2.58 xFIP.
Meanwhile, his rookie opponent Trent Thornton has a 4.26 xFIP and is giving up 18% HR/FB (league average 15%) and 34% Ground Ball (league average 43%).
With those sort of numbers this appears to be a good spot to attack the inexperienced starter and expect his struggles to continue against a dominant opponent.
Edge: TB 1H and/or Full-game ML
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sportsbetting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.