Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – May 28/2019
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post.
1. Arizona Diamonbacks at Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has been a little unlucky so far this season, with his left-on-base (LOB) percentage a few points below the league average, indicating that more runners have been scoring than were ‘supposed to’ against him analytics-wise. Senzatela’s homeruns-to-flyballs ratio (hr/fb) is also nearly double his career average – something that’s almost assuredly an outlier over too small a sample-size – while his xFIP, which tells us how well a pitcher has pitched independent of their defense, reduces his ERA from 6.21 to 4.79. Based on those numbers and the laws of averages, we can except Senzatela to eventually return to the mean and improve on his current statistics. It may not be today, but eventually, which gives him just enough added edge to push the ball in his favor whenever he’s involved in close betting situations.
Across the aisle, Diamonbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly is a rookie making his first visit to Coors field after enjoying a bit of good fortune over his first 53 innings with a 4.75 ERA increasing to a 5.20 using xFIP. Additionally, he’s been inducing ground-balls on only 39% of balls-in-play (BIP), a less-than-stellar mark considering the league average is nearly 5% higher.
An inexperienced starter in a tough ballpark playing above his averages? Sounds like the exact inverse of a perfect betting scenario.
Advantage: Colorado 1H ML
2. San Diego Padres at New York Yankees
By all metrics, Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka is running quite hot, holding an 81% LOB (league average: 73%) and a 2.94 ERA that converts to a 3.78 xFIP. This indicates his true stats are worse than his performance so far and thus he could be due for a correction sometime in the future (again, we have no idea when, but sometime….probably).
On the other side, Padres starter Eric Lauer is running a tad bit poorly with a 67% LOB and xFIP 0.25 lower than his ERA, both pointing to him pitching better than his stats indicate. Meanwhile, when starting against “tired” opponents (defined as 8+ games in 10 days), Lauer holds what seems to be an unimpressive 14-12-2 1H record, but is actually good for a 26% ROI thanks to the odds he’s received over those games. So although this seems like a high-variance spot for sure, the edge definitely appears to be there over the long-run.
Advantage: Padres 1H ML
3. Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Starter Matthew Boyd is 8-4 in favor of the under when tired Orioles are road favorites, good for 30% ROI. Meanwhile, Detroit as a team is 8-15-1 in favor of the under when on the road this season, including yesterday’s game against these very same Orioles, where the final score was 5-3.
If there’s a problem with targeting the under in this matchup it’s most definitely Boyd’s opponent, Baltimore Orioles starter Dylan Bundy, who has not been great so far this season with a 4.90 xFIP and 19% hr/fb, the latter of which is a full 5% higher than the league average. However, with Boyd pitching relatively well this season, Bundy getting to face a tired Tigers team this time out, and 67% of the early dollars coming in on the under, there seems to be enough edge here to take a shot.
Advantage: Total Under 9 (-125)
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sportsbetting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.