Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 7/2019
(see a recap of yesterday’s action at the bottom of this post)
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Reds starter Tyler Mahle has not fared well against the Phillies, going 1-2 and giving up 5 earned-runs over just 5 innings the last time these teams met. He’s also been particularly weak on the road over his career, putting up a 4.57 xFIP vs a 3.85 at home.
Meanwhile, Phillies starter Zach Eflin is running way above expectation with an 85% LOB and a 3.02 ERA converting to a 4.81 xFIP.
I like the odds of fireworks early in this one.
EDGE: Take your pick of the 1H or full-game over
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Backing the dominant Twins while targeting Tigers starter Matthew Boyd’s career 4.78 xFIP at home (a quarter run higher than on the road) seems like as good a place to start as any, particularly with Boyd running above expectation so far this season with a 78% LOB and an xFIP .36 higher than his ERA. Over the past 10 match-ups between these teams the Twins have averaged nearly double the runs (!!!) at 6 per game versus the Tigers’ 3.3. The Twins are also 22-11 on the road, while the Tigers have put up an attendance-destroying 10-19 record at home. Looks like edge to me.
EDGE: Minnesota 1H (the straight ML is most likely +EV as well, though my research now focuses almost entirely on F5, or what I call 1H, betting.)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays
Over the past two seasons, when Jays starter Marcus Stroman has pitched in front of a tired Blue Jays team – as he will be in this one – his opponents have gone 17-8-2 in the 1H, good for 31% ROI.
However, things are not as simple as they seem today, with Dbacks rookie pitcher Merrill Kelly being rolled out on reduced rest while sporting an xFIP more than 2 runs higher on the road than at home, albeit over a very small sample-size. Still, not the ideal pitcher to be counting on for a bet; so while taking a reduced-size position on the Dbacks 1H might have a tiny bit of edge to it, the stronger play may just be to target the over and count on at least one of these two equally unimpressive starters to get lit up early.
EDGE: 1H Over
NBA Analytics Betting Edges
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
I somehow feel like the edge in this one is even thinner than it was in Game 3, and has even less relevant historical data to help guide a decision (meaning, none). But with Durant still out and nearly every other Warriors player hobbled, it seems as if Golden State will need the absolute perfect game – both in terms of on-court execution and fading injury-aggravation – to have a shot at covering the 5 point spread, something we’ve yet to see happen this series. So although I’m aware that it was no more than just a couple of games ago that I said I would be Warriors ride or die in this series, sometimes you have to be willing to die to truly live… *Kawhi laugh*
EDGE (imo): Toronto +5
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