Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 6/2019
1. Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
The same dataset that’s been in play for the past 2 days is up to bat once again, with this matchup falling into a set that’s converted 64% of the time for 23% ROI, including wins in back-to-back games between these two teams.
EDGE: 1H Over
2. Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
If there’s one thing I love doing in MLB betting it’s betting against rookie pitchers. And if I can catch not their first season, but first game, I’ll almost always be willing to go for a ride! Doing anything well your first time out is tough, and when you add in the life-long pressure of such a defining moment, and I think the edge rightfully has to go with the opposition, which is spearheaded by servicable cubs pitcher Jose Quintana who is pitching right at expectation with a respectable 3.78 ERA and 3.80 xFIP.
EDGE: CHC 1H
3. Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Looking at a dataset dealing with a low-scoring team (Baltimore) vs a high-scoring team (Texas) when both squads are ‘tired’ (8+ games in 10 days) that’s covered 59% of the time for 13% ROI including 7-1 when the Rangers are the home team and 2-0 when Jurado is pitching. In the last game between these two teams, the Rangers won in extra innings by a score of 2-1.
EDGE: Under 11
4, Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Looking at a dataset segmenting pitchers who perform well vs tired teams we have Nationals starter Patrick Corbin who has gone 7-3-5 in this situation over the past 2 seasons. Add that to the fact the SD scores the 4th fewest home-game runs in the MLB, and we have just enough edge to take a shot.
EDGE: Wash 1H
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
5. Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream
The Dream are one of the weakest teams in the league and have gone 15-4 55% ROI in favor of the under as the home team over the past 2 seasons, including 2-0 so far this year.
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