Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 5/2019
1. Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
This game falls into a dataset targeting run-friendly stadiums – including Miller Park, the host of today’s game – that’s gone 217-122-23 in favor the 1H Over, good for 23% ROI. Since building this dataset at the start of the season, it’s gone 13-8-2 for 20% ROI.
Additionally the Brewers are rolling out 30 year old Jimmy Nelson, who has been rehabbing a shoulder for
nearly two years, while the Marlins are counting on Sandy Alcantra and his 4.08 ERA and 5.31 xFIP.
Where do I sign up?
EDGE: MIA/MIL 1H Over (the full-game over 9 is almost assuredly +EV as well)
2. San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
This game falls into the same dataset as the one above, one that’s not had an unprofitable year since 2009.
SF Starter Tyler Beede has only pitched 12 innings this season and has not fared overly well in any of them, while Mets starter Jason Vargas holds an xFIP a full run higher than his ERA, indicating he may be due for a regression at some point.
EDGE: SF/NYM 1H Over
3. Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
This one is a bit of a looser play than the others but with rookie John Means pitching for a bad Orioles team while running wayyyyyyy above expectation – 79% LOB and an xFIP of 4.92 compared to a deceptively-impressive 2.80 ERA – this one seems like a ticking time-bomb waiting to blow. It might not detonate today, but I’ll take my chances on a heavily-favored Texas team and take a shot at a decisive victory.
EDGE: Texas -1.5
NBA Analytics Betting Edges
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Let me start off by saying this plainly, I don’t effin know ok?? I mean, clearly we never know know, but in this series in particular, I’ve probably felt the least sure I have all post-season. Even during the two series I took a beating in – Toronto/Milwaukee & Denver/Portland – I still felt sure of the side I was backing the entire way. I may have been wrong, but I was sure. This time, however, the only thing I’m sure of is being 0-5 betting on this series so far.
So where does that leave us today?
Well, here is the relevant data:
Number one: During the Steve Kerr era, Golden State is 7-2 ATS when receiving less than 40% of the betting tickets. They currently sit at 35% of the total bets.
Number two: Nope, that’s it.
Not much to go on, is it? And when we consider how tiny the edge already is in massive-ticket events like the NBA Finals and this one is starting to seem like a fade if we’re discussing a professional approach to sports-betting. We could go back and forth analyzing all the same stuff everyone else is analyzing and make guesses based on hunches, gut feelings, and “eye tests” but the reality is that there’s a zero-percent chance we can’t find a better edge to attack with our dollars elsewhere. And in those types of cases my philosophy is simple: Bet for entertainment, or be entertained with no bets.
EDGE: A dollar saved is a dollar earned.
(For the sweat and cause I ain’t no…. : Raptors +6 since that’s where the sharps really liked it, either by catching it in-game or by buying points pregame, the latter of which is generally not recommended.)
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.