Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 4/2019
1. Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
This matchup features a dataset looking at May and June favorites facing non-playoff teams that has covered the -1.5 runline 55% of the time for 22% ROI and the ML 65% of the time over the past 6 seasons. Add that to the fact that ace Max Fried is on the mound for Atlanta on extra rest and that’s all I need to label this as edge.
EDGE: ATL -1.5 (or ML)
2. Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
This matchup features the same dataset as the Braves/Pirates game.
Additionally, Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has also been running way below expectation to start the season, having a 66% LOB (league average 73%) as well as ERA over 5 compared to a 3.91 xFIP. As a childhood Royals fan, I can assure you no team is a better suited to remedy an ailing pitcher.
EDGE: BOS -1.5 (or ML)
3. Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Over the past two seasons, when Blake Snell has pitched as the road-favorite on a “tired” team (8+ games in 10 days) the under has gone 12-3 for 52% ROI. With the home team in this one being the terrible Tigers, and Blake’s Rays indeed being tired – having played 9 games in 10 days (the most profitable number of games over that 10-day measure), this one seems like a good spot to look for the trend to continue.
EDGE: TB/DET Under
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
1. Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm
Over the past two seasons, betting the under in Minnesota road games has turned in a 15-3 record for 65% ROI!
EDGE: MIN/SEA Under
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sportsbetting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.