Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 14/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. Milwaukee Brewers @ SF Giants
Although they’ve been trending in opposite directions in terms of running at expectation, I’ll take 7-o Zach Davies over 1-6 Drew Pomeranz as part of a run-line dataset looking at high-run favorites against non-playoff teams that’s already gone 34-18 this season, good for 33% ROI. The betting line getting pushed strongly in favor of the Brewers at the open appears to indicate sharp action on this one as well.
EDGE: Milwaukee -1.5
2. KC Royals @ Minnesota Twins
The Twins are at home where they’ve gone 20-10 and are sporting more than double the number of season wins as their opponents. In this one they’ll be rolling out Kyle Gibson and his 3.43 xFIP against second-year starter Brad Keller who holds an xFIP just south of 5 and puts up only 6 strikeouts per 9 innings this season (league average is 8.5).
EDGE: Minnesota -1.5
3. Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regardless of his 2-1 record so far this season, Pirates starter Steven Brault has put up some truly uninspiring pitching numbers over his 4-year career, including a 5.62 xFIP this season and a horrific 4.93 BB/9 (league average: 3). Yikes!
And while Marlins starter Trevor Richards’ season numbers aren’t blowing anyone away either with a 5.00 xFIP, he seems to have turned the corner over his past 3 starts, impressively giving up a combined 2 runs while striking out 18 in those games. And with the line getting pushed slightly in Miami’s favor immediately upon opening, this seems like an edge-worthy spot.
EDGE: Miami F5 or ML
4. Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is only 12-21 ATS at home with only 9 total wins in their own stadium, while the Red Sox hold as many wins on the road against their division alone!
EDGE: Boston -1.5
NOTE: Rather than taking any of the three -1.5 bets listed above, combining your two favorites in a parlay as regular moneyline bets seems +EV as well.
CFL Analytics Betting Edges
5. Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos
Same stat as the winning one last night will be in play every game for the first few weeks until we acquire more data on how this season is playing out vs the historical numbers.
CFL games in the first third of the season have gone under 56% of the time for 9% ROI including a 33-20 record in the first game of the season (1-0 so far this year). When playing under these conditions, Montreal and Edmonton have combined to go 84-69 in favor of the under, good for +11.5 Units.
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
6. Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx
Over the past two seasons, when Connecticut has been the road team the under has hit 65% of the time including 3-0 this season, the second highest mark in the league behind only their opponents in this one, the Minnesota Lynx.
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.