Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 13/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Even though Tigers starter Matthew Boyd hasn’t blown anyone away so far this season, he’s still vastly outperformed Royals starter Homer Bailey and his 4.51 xFIP. Boyd also has sizeable advantages over Bailey when it comes to three of the most important statistics for a pitcher: K/9, BB/9 & HR/9.
Additionally, the opening betting line of -115 in favor of Detroit got quickly pushed back to as high as -138 at time of writing, a number that may continue to grow ahead of first-pitch, likely indicating sharp action on the Tigers.
EDGE: Both the F5 & ML bets are in play here. Do your research and pick your poison/s. (EDIT: after looking at it a little deeper, I do prefer the F5 bet).
2. Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox + Chicago Cubs @ LA Dodgers
Rangers starter Adrian Sampson is running way above expectation, with an xFIP more than a full run higher than his ERA and a 79% LOB. Meanwhile Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has put up near career-low strikeout numbers and career-high HR/9 numbers, something that I have to assume will rebound over his final 100 innings pitched this season since that’s much more likely than this becoming Kershaw’s worst statistical season.
Although bigger parlays are generally unprofitable compared to their straight-bet counterparts, the right 2-team parlay made up of high-odd-favorites can show positive expected value.
EDGE: Boston/LAD Parlay
CFL Analytics Betting Edges
3. SAS Roughriders @ HAM Tiger-Cats
Oh yes, the league with 9 teams and 3 downs is back for yet another season of Canadian football action! Doug Flutie, unfortunately, remains retired.
The interesting thing to note here is that CFL games in the first third of the season have gone under 56% of the time for 9% ROI including a 32-20 record in the first game of the season. Hamilton is the single most profitable team within that statistic, accounting for a 23-11 record in favor of the under, good for 32% ROI.
EDGE: SAS/HAM Under
NBA Guessing Edges
4. Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Warriors got big early points from Durant, great games from both Klay and Steph, horrible shooting from the entire Raptors team…and still only won by a single point after having literally zero room for error in either direction in the final few minutes. I’ll take my chances the game-script doesn’t play out as favorably for Golden State again (injury not withstanding).
EDGE: Toronto +2.5
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.