Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 11/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. New York Mets @ New York Yankees
So far this season, Mets starter Zach Wheeler is running below expectation with an xFIP nearly a run lower than his ERA and a LOB% below 70. Additionally, Wheeler has pitched nearly a quarter run better xFIP on the road vs at home during his career, with both lower walks and home-run rates. Granted this battle of New York is not exactly your typical away-game but it’s always nice to have the stats on your side regardless.
Meanwhile, Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka is running nearly three-quarters of a run above expectation in regards to xFIP while also leaving 79% of runners on base, a likely unsustainable number.
EDGE: NYM F5
2. Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
Over the past 2 seasons, Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo is 23-13-2 in the 1H against tired teams, good for 19% ROI, including 2-0 against the same Indians team he’s facing today.
EDGE: Cincinnati F5
3. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Dataset looking at high-run favorites playing on the road against non-playoff teams that’s gone 103-61 (63%) over the past 6 seasons, good for 37% ROI against the runline!
EDGE: Minnesota -1.5
4. Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox
Looking at a dataset focused on teams performing poorly in high-total games (8.5+) on the third day of a series that’s covered 60% of the time for 17% ROI and +95 units over the past 4 seasons.
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That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.
Previous Blog Recap
We had one game cancelled, one game that was a convincing loss (PHI -1.5), and the following (Toronto lost 106-105)