Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 10/2019
(see a recap of the previous blog at the bottom of this post)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
With not much action on tap today, we’ll have to make due with a couple of decent spots and one very thin one.
To start things off we’re looking at betting against a rookie pitcher on the road who is sporting an xFIP nearly a run higher than his ERA, which seems as good a place as any to begin. Additionally, this game falls into a dataset looking at favorites vs non-playoff teams that has covered 56% of the time for 23% ROI over the past 5 years, including 18% so far this season.
EDGE: Philadelphia -1.5
2. New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Dataset looking at two high-scoring teams playing when both are ‘tired’ (adjusted to 7+ games over 10 days) which has covered 60% of the time over the past 2 years for 16% ROI including +8 units when the Yankees have been the home-team, the highest mark in the league over that time-period.
EDGE: NYM/NYY Under
NBA Analytics Betting Edges
3. Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
I don’t really know how it’s possible for our edge to get progressively smaller as the series goes on, but here we are with another spot where it’s tough to feel like you have a leg up on the books. Without Durant I think this continues to be a slam-dunk Raptors play, and with a fully-healthy Durant, I think the edge has to go to the champs; but now we’re stuck in purgatory, with no possible way to accurately gauge how the injury and potential return will impact the series we’ve been watching these past 4 games.
However, from a historical perspective, this game definitely leans in Toronto’s favor, with the Raptors having gone 8-0 in game 5s at home and the number 2 seeds covering the game 5 spread at home 64% of the time for 23% ROI. So while we’ll have to stay tuned until right before game-time to see how the betting lines unfold (join us on discord below for the latest betting updates), as it stands now with so much up in the air, I think the betting edge in this one (if it exists at all) has to come from not looking for a savior to turn everything around, but instead looking at the series with impartial eyes and recognizing that the 4-all-star Warriors have been getting thoroughly outplayed and have barely even threatened the Raptors during that time. Will that change with a less-than-100% KD on the floor? Most likely at least somewhat, but can we really count on that alone and throw everything else out the window? My instinct says no, but the honest answer is who the heck knows.
So regardless of which way you decide to play it, make sure not to over-leverage in a spot where, once again, we can most definitely find bigger edges for our dollars elsewhere.
EDGE: Toronto ML or +points if it should get to that (note: subject to change)
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That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.