Please note that the information below does not constitute sports-betting recommendations, only a study of historic analytical edges as applied to today’s games intended to give you a head-start on research of your own.
MLB Analytics Betting Edges – June 1/2019
All MLB bets are ranked in order of sports-betting profitability based on the pitching dataset explained in the video at the bottom of this analytics post as well as the over/under dataset shown in the video at the top of this post. All baseball-analysis terms are explained in this post.
1. KC Royals @ Texas Rangers
Over the past 2 season, betting against Kansas City Royals starter Homer Bailey when his team has played
7+ games in 10 days has yielded a 17-6-3 record, good for 21%.
Meanwhile betting on Rangers starter Lance Lynn in the same situation has gone 18-12-6 for 8% ROI.
EDGE: Rangers 1H
2. SF Giants @ Baltimore Orioles
Over the past two seasons, betting against Orioles starter David Hess when his team has has played 8+ games in 10 days has yielded a 16-5-6 1H record for 13% ROI.
Meanwhile Giants rookie Shaun Anderson has played much better in 3 starts than his stats indicate, with a 56% LOB (league average: 73%) and an xFIP more than half a run lower than his ERA.
EDGE: Giants 1H
3. Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Struggling Nick Kingham vs Brewers Ace Brandon Woodruff is one of those spots we don’t need to think too deeply about.
EDGE: Brewers -1.5
NHL Analytics Betting Edges
4. Boston Bruins @ St Louis Blues
Since 2005 Stanley Cup games have gone 47-27-6 in favor of the under, including 5-1-1 with Boston as the road team. Additionally, both teams were in the top 6 of Goals-Against this season setting the stage for a low scoring affair.
WNBA Analytics Betting Edges
5. Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics
Since 2005, when visiting teams have played a B2B after a loss, the over has gone 106-67-3 for 19% ROI, including 6-2 when that team is the Atlanta Dream.
EDGE: Over (with both teams off to a slow start, this seems like a good spot to bet ingame and try to shave somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-12 points off the opening line before putting your bet in. Nothing wrong with missing a bet if the optimal situation doesn’t show up; patience and discipline is the name of the game in variance-heavy endeavors like sports-betting and poker.)
6. Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings
Over the past 3 seasons, blindly betting the under when the Lynx were playing would have netted a 41-29 record for 15% ROI. With the Wings making their primary focus spreading the floor with outside shooting, this one will come down to the 3pt game; if they get hot at home from outside, the under could be in trouble; otherwise I like our chances in this one.
EDGE: Under (1 unit pregame and another 5-10 points higher depending on game-flow)
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sportsbetting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.