Why You Should Definitely NOT Make A Lakers Championship Bet
No Meat On The Bone
In sports-betting, you only want to take action that has obvious value, or, at the very least, obvious to you. If you imagine a pack of hungry wild animals fighting over a carcass (an apt analogy for sports-betting tbqh), the last one to show up to the party is likely not going to find much meat left on the bone, and will need to fight tooth and nail with the other late-comers to even have a chance at survival. By trying to bet on the Lakers now, with their odds having already moved from +1500 to +300 (meaning that instead of a $1500 return for every $100 wagered, it’s now 5 times less), you are doing exactly that, fighting over the scraps after all the value has already been picked off the bone.
Just as it is in day-trading, when taking long-term bets, buy-low, sell-high must be a religion, not a motto! And unfortunately for those looking to hop on the LA Lebrakers ™ bandwagon, the time to buy low was at 15-1, or 10-1, or even 5-1, though it was most likely only Laker fanatics and those with inside information who would have taken on those final odds with nothing to indicate value before the Anthony Davis announcement.
At 2.5-1 odds the break-even point for a bet is nearly 30%, meaning that if we ran the upcoming NBA 2019 season over and over again ad infinitum, the Lakers would need to be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy nearly a third of the time for us to show a profit. So if you think that’s a fair assessment of LA’s likelihood for success, cool, you can take the bet and sleep well at night. If, however, you’re not insane, and have even the most basic eyeball understanding of the immense variance found in a professional sports league like the NBA (especially when discussing a superstar with more miles on his body than *insert early 2000s reality-show starlet here* and a co-star more fragile than Samuel L Jackson in Unbreakable), you likely understand that 30% is an incredibly steep price to pay for a bet that will be locked away for the next year.
Which brings us to reason number two you should most definitely not bet on the Lakers to win a Championship…
Putting Your Babies In Prison Is Immoral
Here’s a cold, hard, truth for you: unless you are terrible at sports-betting or a similar passion like poker, day-trading, or even flipping shit on eBay – unless you are absolutely awful at all those types of things – there is absolutely no way you can’t improve on a 2.5-1 return on your money over the course of an entire NBA season. I mean, heck, if you’re even a remotely competent sports-bettor with the discipline to wait for the right spots, you can outdo that type of return in just one or two bets, let alone an entire season’s worth of them. And if that’s the case, locking your dollar-babies in money prison for months on end, just to maybe secure a 2.5-1 return is, in all honesty, disrespectful to the game.
So sure, if you’ve been an eternally unprofitable sports-bettor, or have no clue how to flip your $100 into $350 over the course of 8+ months using literally any other mean, go ahead and take a 2.5-1 bet (though not this specific one, for the other reasons listed here). But, if you have faith in your ability to do what human beings have been doing since the beginning of time – using your resources to grow more resources – don’t put your dollar-babies in prison!
Happy Gilmore Said It Best
Consider this: the only way you will not get a better price on the Lakers winning the NBA championship than it is today is if LA runs the table end-to-end, never facing a particularly bad stretch, never dealing with a major injury *coughADcough*, or literally any other sort of adversity whatsoever. Because, in every other scenario but this one picture-perfect one, you can, and will, get a better price on LA raising the banner than 2.5-1.
So if you’re just dying to put your money-babies in prison for an entire season even after reading this blog, at the very least consider waiting until some adversity strikes the Lakers and all the talking-heads start reading off their obituaries, before placing your bet at much more favorable odds.
Because, although the odds of it are not in their favor, it is possible LA goes coast-to-coast, leaving your poor $100 (or whatever amount you would have bet) pondering what could have been, but as the well-known day-trading saying goes “I’d rather miss a winning bet, than be stuck in a bad one.”
Buy low, sell high, remember?
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and make sure to DM me on Instagram for an invite to join our free sports-betting community on Discord, where 250 members are talking picks and strategies around the clock.
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